Cannibalization in the New Year

 'Tis the time of year that business managers and owners tighten up their sales projections for the approaching new year.

For most retail and restaurants, this means looking back on the year ending period by period, reflecting on advertising, promotions, what worked and what didn't, and of course, the weather. All this might tell them something about the future.

But McDonald's Owners have a more difficult task as 2025 ends, due to a vast unknown - the potential damage caused by new McDonald's stores.

No one knows how many new USA stores might be opened in 2026. A few hundred might make sense. Any number nearing 1,000 would be insanity.

The smaller number would only impact a limited number of existing stores. A larger number would eliminate any hope of positive same-store sales nationally in 2026 and beyond. And we know who pays the price when same-store sales are soft.

When I say no one knows how many new stores will be opened, I mean NO ONE. The corporation lacks the systemic memory needed to locate and open worthwhile restaurants. As Anonymous disclosed, they are relying on commercial real estate brokers who have no skin in the game (except for their commission). Local governments have gotten tougher than ever, especially on drive-thrus. They don't seem to mind when a brand is adding a new outlet to restaurant row, but when a new restaurant is proposed in virgin territory, the locals turn out with pitchforks. 

So when PJB and his crew can say they are going to build new at Main St and Main Ave., they are going to get a lot of surprises. Some nearby Owner/Operators will be disappointed, some will be thrilled that they might not be impacted.

That's why 2026 projections are difficult. No one knows how many new stores will open in the next few years, regardless of what PJB told President Trump at their recent meeting. Neither of them knows anything about locating new McDonald's stores.

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